After all the recent turmoil in industry and the collapse of many banks, it’s a question that many people are now asking – and with good reason. The truth is, no one knows exactly what’s in store for the future of the industry – but here’s what we can say for now.

Any industry is driven by demand. The demand for capital, and for buying and selling other companies will always be there – so investment banks themselves will continue to exist into the future.

Bonuses will be way down over levels in recent years, however. 2006-2007 will not return for a long time, and in the near future we’re more likely to see 2001 levels for bonus payments.

The oldest and most well-known investment banks – Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley – will also be greatly affected. Since they are now bank holding companies, they’ll be subject to increased regulation and will no longer be able to pay stratospheric bonuses.

Bonuses at GS and MS will also be down – but mostly because the economy is so bad, not because they are bank holding companies. And that’s true across the industry – bonus numbers everywhere will be down sharply this year.

Middle-market and boutique firms, on the other hand, will start to thrive. Maybe not “thrive,” but more boutiques will be formed by ex-bulge bracket bankers who are looking for more freedom and advancement opportunities. There has already been quite an exodus of talent from top Wall Street banks into tiny startup advisory and investment firms.

Is there anything in finance that’s actually “safe” right now? No, not really. Plenty of banks, hedge funds, and private equity firms have failed.

Is anyone still hiring? Yes – in fact, some firms are actually expanding. Funds of funds are still investing and hiring, and anything restructuring-related always needs more heads in a downturn. Hybrid consulting firms/banks have also been more popular lately.

When will we hit the bottom? It may not happen for awhile. Increased regulation also means that even when things recover, smaller firms may be better positioned to rise to the top.

Most importantly, how can you break into the industry in this environment? Aim small (boutiques), go East (Far East and Middle East), and think outside pure investment banking – think about hybrid consulting firms, and anything with a restructuring, turnaround, or even healthcare focus. Those are areas that are still hiring people, because they’re relatively counter-cyclical, or at least “recession-neutral.”

Investment banking will change over time, but it will never go away as long as the demand is there. It may be tough to get into the industry right now, but it’s do-able if you have a lot of persistence and you focus on the right places.

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